A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.

BACKGROUND Smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth is problematic. In light of the research showing that preventing smoking experimentation is a valid strategy for smoking prevention, there is a need to identify Mexican American youth at high risk for experimentation. METHODS A prospective population-based cohort of 1,179 adolescents of Mexican descent was followed for 5 years starting in 2005-06. Participants completed a baseline interview at a home visit followed by three telephone interviews at intervals of approximately 6 months and additional interviews at two home visits in 2008-09 and 2010-11. The primary endpoint of interest in this study was smoking experimentation. Information about social, cultural, and behavioral factors (e.g., acculturation, susceptibility to experimentation, home characteristics, and household influences) was collected at baseline using validated questionnaires. RESULTS Age, sex, cognitive susceptibility, household smoking behavior, peer influence, neighborhood influence, acculturation, work characteristics, positive outcome expectations, family cohesion, degree of tension, ability to concentrate, and school discipline were found to be associated with smoking experimentation. In a validation dataset, the proposed risk prediction model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.719 (95% confidence interval, 0.637-0.801) for predicting absolute risk for smoking experimentation within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS The proposed risk prediction model is able to quantify the risk of smoking experimentation in Mexican American adolescents. IMPACT Accurately identifying Mexican American adolescents who are at higher risk for smoking experimentation who can be intervened will substantially reduce the incidence of smoking and thereby subsequent health risks.